Pakistan’s urea sales are projected to fall sharply in January 2026, marking the lowest monthly off-take in over six years. According to research by Topline Securities, the decline follows record-breaking purchases in December, combined with tapering seasonal demand and reduced manufacturer discounts.

The sector research highlights that fertilizer sales slowed dramatically both month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY), while inventories continued to rise as production levels remained steady despite weaker demand.

Topline Securities estimates that urea sales for January 2026 will reach 218,000 tons, representing a 75-month low. This reflects an 84 percent decrease compared to December 2025 and a 51 percent decline from January 2025. The dramatic slowdown comes after advance purchases in December, when manufacturers offered higher discounts that drove record sales of 1.36 million tons.

The sharp correction in January underscores the seasonal volatility in Pakistan’s fertilizer market, where aggressive end-of-year buying often leads to softer demand in the following month. Analysts note that while December 2025 sales were historic, the January slowdown is a natural market adjustment, rather than a sign of long-term weakness.

Despite the decline in sales, production has continued at steady rates, leading to rising inventories. This could influence pricing strategies and discount offerings in the coming months, as manufacturers and distributors aim to balance supply and demand.

The fertilizer sector will closely watch February sales to assess whether demand stabilizes following the post-December correction, particularly as farmers prepare for the upcoming planting cycles.